disclaimer: Reviews on paultan.org does not necessarily reflect the views of this blog owner. Sunny Tan does not know Paul Tan. These two individuals just share the same surname, like how Sunny Tan and Vincent Tan of Berjaya Group share the same surname 'Tan' .

The two envelopes problem is a puzzle or paradox within the subjectivistic interpretation of probability theory; more specifically within Bayesian decision theory. This is still an open problem among the subjectivists as no consensus has been reached yet.

The puzzle: Let's say you are given two indistinguishable envelopes, each of which contains a positive sum of money. One envelope contains twice as much as the other. You may pick one envelope and keep whatever amount it contains. You pick one envelope at random but before you open it you're offered the possibility to take the other envelope instead.

Now, suppose you reason as follows:

1. I denote by A the amount in my selected envelope
2. The probability that A is the smaller amount is 1/2, and that it's the larger also 1/2
3. The other envelope may contain either 2A or A/2
4. If A is the smaller amount the other envelope contains 2A
5. If A is the larger amount the other envelope contains A/2
6. Thus, the other envelope contains 2A with probability 1/2 and A/2 with probability 1/2
7. So the expected value of the money in the other envelope is
   
   (note: "expected value" is summation of all possible outcomes times the probability of that outcome occuring. So above, 2A occurs 1/2 of the time and A/2 occurs also 1/2 of the time. Add 1/2 times 2A and 1/2 times A/2, you get 5/4 A)
   
   
8. This is greater than A, so I gain on average by swapping
9. After the switch I can denote that content B and reason in exactly the same manner as above
10. I will conclude that the most rational thing to do is to swap back again
11. To be rational I will thus end up swapping envelopes indefinitely
12. As it seems more rational to open just any envelope than to swap indefinitely we have a contradiction

The puzzle is to find the flaw in the very compelling line of reasoning above.

Thats about it from trusty ol wikipedia....

Now. there are many solutions offered, and many are quite complicated....if you are interested, you can read it up from here.

- paradoxes are everywhere.....the truth is out there... (mayb u can start searching in wikipedia)

The money’s good, but family suffers

 

THEY make good money in Singapore. But for many of the thousands of Malaysians working across the Causeway, it is a great strain on their family life.

The problem came into sharp focus in the recent murder of child kidnap victim, Lo Ching Poon.
The victim’s mother was lonely and depressed raising her four children because her husband was consumed by his work in Singapore.
Consequently, Lee Choon Huay, 33, turned to making friends through the short messaging service (SMS).
Apparently, she had 500 such acquaintances, one of whom is now the key suspect in the abduction and killing of her eight-year-old daughter.

Consultant psychiatrist Dr Benjamin Chan says the episode underlines the pressures on family life faced by Malaysians who commute to work in Singapore daily.
"They are so tired by the time they return home that they have virtually no time for their spouse or children.
"Even on weekends or public holidays, they are so exhausted mentally, emotionally and physically, that what they want to do is sleep," he says.
"Consequently, there is no intimacy in their marriage and this ruins relationships. I am seeing such cases more and more often."

The irony is that most work in Singapore to provide a better life for their families.

 

Take factory worker Tan Geok Huay, 33. This permanent night-shift worker, who earns S$1,500 (RM3,300) a month, even sacrifices her days off and public holidays to work for double or triple pay.
Her husband, Loh Boon Hui, 35, is no different. The shipyard worker leaves for work in Singapore at 5am and often gets home past 9pm.
Their two children, aged 8 and 10, are in the care of Loh’s parents in Negri Sembilan.
Tan and Loh, among the 100,000 Malaysians who commute to work in Singapore daily, send money regularly but don’t get to see the children.

Construction worker Mat Hussin, 36, of Batu Pahat, has three children aged 10 to 15.
Renting a room in Taman Universiti in Johor Baru, he works six days a week with overtime almost every day.
He confesses that he has absolutely no life as he leaves home for work at 6am and returns home after 10pm.
"My wife keeps nagging me to return home every weekend. But I am too tired for that. I usually go home once a month and even then it’s a day trip. I feel sorry for her. But I try to make it up by sending her no less than RM2,500 every month. It is a lonely life."

 

Counsellor Tan Chee Siang says most are torn between family and material needs.
"This is a common pheno- menon in most border towns. It boils down to priorities.
"Do you value money and material comforts more than your family? It is very difficult to strike a balance. That is why some suffer from guilt although their pockets are full of cash."
Children, deprived of love and affection, are the ultimate casualties.

 

Youth worker Michael Moorthy, who is also president of the Boys’ Brigade in Malay- sia, has encountered many such cases.
"In the absence of their parents, they hang out in shopping centres, mix with bad hats and seek refuge in the company of secret societies that claim to care for them.
"By the time their parents realise this, these kids have been transformed and have totally different personalities. It is already too late," he says.

 

Like his parents, high school student Albert Chung, 18, travels to Singapore daily, but they enter the republic separately.
Chung wakes up at 4am to catch the 5am school bus. He is normally back in Johor Baru after 4pm. His parents never cook, so he eats out. By the time he goes to bed, they are still not back from work.
"It is terribly lonely. I am alone most of the time. I make my own decisions. There is no one to talk to or consult.
"Although I stay with my parents, I only see them and have tea with them during the weekends. Even then, they inevitably end up quarrelling."

 

Dr Chan, a member of the board of directors of the Mental Health Foundation, suggests the Government initiate a study on the psychosocial needs of these people.
"This is a valuable group of human resource. It is critical that we reach out to them with special programmes.
"It is also imperative that they remain physically and mentally healthy," he says.

 

Article by Sim Bak Heng, www.nst.com.my , 11th June 2006

You can download this excel spreadsheet here (just right click and 'save target as') - enjoy!

For Manchester United supporters like myself...here's a desktop wallpaper from manutd.com...its a nice wallpaper featuring the United players playing in the world cup. Below is a preview, just right click on the image, and u can save it to your computer and use it as your wallpaper.

On a different note, i havent been writing much lately, mainly because a lot is happening around me...and sometimes i feel like writing, but was busy...and when im free, i no longer feel like writing it...

Oh yea, i'm beginning to love AFL (australian rules football)...specifically, the Sydney Swans . . . i guess its just the natue of the game that attracts me - fast, plenty of nice plays, and plenty of goals...

I guess its understandable why soccer is not much of a thing here in OZ before this...i mean, soccer is only enjoyable when its european or south american...where the games are entertaining and the atmosphere is just electric, and only there can u experience, the beautiful game..and here, AFL is a pretty good substitue for that i guess (altho it lacks in term of dazzling moves and techniques)...

well, for the sake of soccer in australia, i hope the OZ team does well in the world cup...and yes, i still wish all the best for malaysian soccer...

 This entry will try to reminisce and recollect on the past few weeks of the blog owner's life. It has been a fairly eventfull period of time, and collectively positive one. With happenings ranging from sports fever to birthdays to winning eleven, it's definitely nothing short of exciting. Those who know the blog owner might be interested in carrying on reading.

 Mohd Sunny Tan is not a person who writes a lot, and finds writing a blog entry a struggle. Its a constant battle between the need to put thoughts to writings and his royal laziness. Thus, he has been missing from this page for quite some time. Now, he definitely has a world of stories to tell, and it all depends on how he can recall everything.

 3.1 Sports Carnival

On the 15th and 16th of April, the MSA of Macquarie, MSO of UNSW, SUAMS (Syd Uni), and MASA of UTS had jointly held an inter uni sports carnival. The venue were Moore Park next to Sydney Boy's High and Sydney Uni Sports and Aquatic Center. The sports played were Soccer, Basketball, Netball, Volleyball, Badminton, and Tennis - all of which Macquarie MSA competed in.

 

Macquarie MSA - The Green Team (after the happening green colour of their t-shirts), were only victorious in one basketball game, while managing 3rd for badminton. However, this blog owner reckons that they were already champions in their own rights. Not a big team to begin with, the Greens still managed to have a brilliant team of supporters. The atheletes themselves had been training consistently and with discipline since a few weeks before the games, and were fearless in their matches. They lived up to the main instruction - Strength and Honour.

 

The blog owner is very proud of everyone in the contingent - from the MSA committee, to the Green's faithfuls who made any arena theirs. If given a chance to choose a team to be in, this blog owner would not hesitate on choosing Macquarie MSA again - a team with heart and supporters that anyone would love to have.

 

-special mention: congratulations to the other teams. The sports carnival was a success thanx to everyone.

 

3.2 Birthday Boy Mohd Sunny Tan

 

17th of April was this blog owner's birthday. On that day, he turned 21.

 

Sunday night, 16th April, he joined some friends for karaoke, just to chill after a tiring few days of total sports fever. He was totalyl surprised that the karaoke turned out to be a surprise birthday celebration for him, planned by his wonderfull friends.

 

He was singing like he usually likes to while wondering why some other people had not arrived. He didn't really care, because all he wanted to do is relax and sing. Suddenly, the door opened, and his friends came in with a birthday cake with candles lit. WHAT?! He did not even see it coming. It was really flattering and touching. He never celebrated his birthday since a long long time ago - and he almost forgot how a birthday celebration felt like.

 

Later on that week, he found out that a couple of his friends had actually planned a birthday surprise on Friday night before his birthday, based on the belief that the blog owner was going to the city that day. He didn't, and the surprise was called off. He felt, and still feels, miserable for cancelling that journey down to the city - he really couldn't make it. He is very sorry, and also would like to thank them for all they had done - yes, the chocolate ice cream cake was great! Good thing the blog owner still managed to taste them.

 

Thank you very much to those who were there on his birthday, and those who wished him. Every little thing everyone did had made his day. A special thanks to the special one in Ireland who gave the very nice birthday cake on the karaoke night. Muchas Gracias Amigos.

 

3.3 Assignment, Oh Assignment

 

The blog owner had an ECON 349 major assignment due on the 1st of May.  ECON 349 - Southeast Asian Economy.

 

It was a group assignment, a report on bird flu and it's impact on Indonesia. A person needed to contribute about 2000 words. Hence, for the whole group of 6, the combined report was a massive 12000 word one.

 

Till date, he still hasn't gotten over the assignment, which probably explains why he is writing his blog entry in such format. Yes, he probably has gone bonkers because of that report.

 

3.4 Uni Restarted

 

The whistle had been blown, and thus the second half of first semester of 2006 kicks off. A 2 week + long half time break had been fully utilized by the manager, Mohd Sunny Tan, to give his team, comprising of himself, a good rest as well as bashing for their first half's unsatisfactory performance.

 

A slow start had caused his side to fall behind 2-1 to Uni. But as the players come out of the tunnel, they seemed full of confidence in turning the tables around. The manager undoubtedly should have all the reasons in the world to remain optimistic of his side's chances. History had proven that his side are always capable of coming back from behind to win the game. Games such as the ones against School and College are definitely the ones he turned to for inspiration.

 

But is this a good way to win? We have seen in the past, this team failing to come back. Knowing the league as it is, a lost in any game can be a devastating one indeed. This league of life is a serious one, and probably the manager should consider trying to be in the lead from the start of each match. Then again, question arrises: Is that possible in this league?

 

3.5 Azan's Surprise Birthday

 

The blog owner had seen many surprise birthdays on tv, and had experienced a couple of them - one of which had been described earlier. With one of his close buddies' birthday on Wednesday 3rd of May, how could he not do anything?

 

So he plotted and plotted, with a group of his other friends, on throwing a surprise party. And soon it unfolded.

 

Azan was told by Daniel that Daniel's mom is cooking that Tuesday night for the whole MSA committee. The blog owner then acted being excited and asked Azan whether he heard the news. The blog owner in effort to control Azan's arrival time to the party venue had made it a point to go there together.

 

The birthday cake was bought, invitations were made, and the plan was structured. The great MSA chefs were to cook for the party, and there was no doubt they would deliver a good meal - once again. That night, this blog owner met up with Azan, watched tv for awhile, and soon they were heading to to hot spot.

 

Walk speed was disturbingly fast, as news came that the venue and food was not ready yet. So he had to slow them down - the toilet!So they made their first detour, to the toilet in the new commerce building. The blog owner noticed that the toilet is incapable of killing the time in the amount he wanted, so he choosed to go to the computer lab for awhile.

 

Finally they arrived at the place, the Macquarie Uni village. There was only one more thing to do. Azan had thought the dinner was at Daniel's place, however, the party was at Seng Chee's place. So, the blog owner lied saying Seng Chee needed some help, and made the 'detour' to his place. Cool Zaini was washing dishes pretending that nothing happened. The blog owner and Azan stepped into the house, and then - SURPRISE! HAPPY BIRTHDAY! The whole night, as they say, was history.

 

3.6 Winning Eleven Craze

 

It had been awhile since the blog owner had played Winning Eleven with human being. He was excited by the prospects, when he saw Seng Chee had PS2 in his house - and Ve Leong had Winning Eleven CD!

 

Right after the birthday party, he went to Ve's house to grab the CD, and came back to Seng Chee's place, and started playing. It felt so good, playing with an actualy human being, rather than the pc.

 

They played like crazy, and for nearly 24 hours (sleep and misc inclusive). Untill the blog owner decided that he had to go home. Besides, Seng Chee had to do his assignment! He is looking forward to many many more games.

 

In retrospective, this is a crazy post. The blog owner resisted the temptation to use the word I or my or anything similar. HAHAHAHAHA...well, this had been an eventful 3 weeks...booohoooo...I am going to cook myself lunch now! I missed breakfast, and missed brunch! There are somethings I left out...heyyyyyyyyyy...its already a long post...dont wanna make it worst =P

 

 

U think U knoe ME?hhehe...go ahead...u have free time anyway (since u r viewing  this page)...hehe..